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| From | Message | Posted by i_play_slowly mailcafe.net
1/07/2007 10:39:12 Play online chess | Subject: The Sicilian
Message: After 1. e4 c5 2. Nf3, the 2,000,000-game database at -> chesslab.com appears to rank Black's candidate moves this way:
#1) 2...g6: White won 34%, Black won 33%, Draw 33%
#2) 2...e6: White won 35%, Black won 33%, Draw 32%
#3) 2...d6: White won 37%, Black won 32%, Draw 31%
#4) 2...Nc6: White won 38%, Black won 33%, Draw 29%
With 2. ...g6, as you can see, the difference between White victories and Black victories is only 1%.
*
After more than 9 hours of analysis, Fritz8 appears to rank Black's candidate moves this way:
#1) 2...Nc6: +0.41
#2) 2...g6: +0.49
#3) 2...d6: +0.50
#4) 2...e6: +0.50
Which source is more reliable, the 2,000,000-game database or one of the most credible chess software programs on the market? Perhaps it's a moot point. While the two appear to diverge re: the merits of 2...Nc6 and 2...e6, both seem to agree that 2...g6 is a strong candidate.
| Posted by ionadowman mailcafe.net
1/07/2007 11:50:32 Play online chess | Which just goes to show...
Message: ... that White's initiative at the outset of the game does seem to be worth half a pawn, or maybe slightly less. The database stats seem to indicate that there is little to choose from the 4 moves suggested for Black (2...d6, 2...Nc6, 2...g6, 2...e6). The worst "performing" according to this database, 2...Nc6, the results can be expressed this way: 52.5%-47.5% in favour of White, a difference of 5%, or, if you like, 1 game in 20. Not exactly overwhelming, is it?
But, in evaluating these kinds of stats, overall numbers might need to be taken into account as well. Now, suppose this database had, say, 80,000 games with 2...d6 and a similar number with 2...Nc6, but only 20,000 games with 2...g6. However significant you think the performance stats to begin with, you might conclude that the difference in numbers of games played renders problematical any statistical conclusions you might be inclined to draw.
H'mmm
| Posted by kewms mailcafe.net
1/07/2007 14:03:07 Play online chess |
Message: While Fritz is an excellent program, there's a reason why computers use opening books. Pure analysis simply isn't enough in the early stages of the game. I certainly wouldn't draw any conclusions based on a few hundredths of a pawn difference at move 2.
It's also hard to draw any conclusions from game database statistics unless you know more about both the distribution of games and the strength of the players. However, I would expect the game database to be a better predictor of results in actual games between humans, because those are the games it models. For example, it might be that the advantages that Fritz sees in 2... Nc6 are difficult to actually convert for players who are not blessed with perfect tactical vision. Or (returning to my previous point) it might be that 2... Nc6 offers a short term tactical edge, but at a strategic cost that Fritz is incapable of calculating.
Katherine
——— The Scotch Opening, part 5: a dynamic endgame opportunity — How does White do something with this passive position? Howell-Werle, London 2009. White to play. Concluding our brief survey of the Scotch (1 e4 e5 2 Nf3 Nc6 3 d4 exd4 4 Nxd4), we look at the kind of dynamic endgame struggle that can arise from this old but still important chess opening. RB White's position after 1 exf5 Nxf5 2 Re1 (or 2 e4, or 2 Kd2) is so passive – and the e-pawn likely to be a long-term weakness – that White's best chance is to push with 1 e5. Assuming Black takes (1...d5 2 Na4 followed by Nc5 would give the white knight a great post ) with 1...dxe5, White has 2 Bc4, developing his bishop ...
Posted by spijker mailcafe.net
1/07/2007 14:30:21 Play online chess |
Message: Are you planning to start playing the sicilian defense? My advice would be 2. ..,d6.
This moves gives many fantastic struggles. IMO more than with other 2nd moves. ——— Chess notes — All eyes this week were on the Corus chess tournament at Wijk aan Zee, the Netherlands, which had about everything one could hope for: drama, contention, star players, and great chess. The event’s sponsor, Corus, is a steel manufacturing and construction company, which was recently acquired by Tate Steel, India’s second largest privately held company. This corporation is a sponsor of many athletic and cultural events throughout Europe and hopefully will continue this great chess event in future years. The “Corus Line’’ in this tourney included, among its 14 contestants, nearly all of the world’s leading Grandmasters, except for Veselin Topalov of Bulgaria and Levon Aronian of ...
Posted by arichallan mailcafe.net
1/07/2007 22:16:30 Play online chess | Some other things to think about...
Message: How many of these games were Open Sicilians? How many Bb5 Sicilians showed up, Moscow after d6 and Rossolimo after Nc6 (or even sometimes after 2...e6 and 2...g6)? How many e6 games went into the Scheveningen (also a d6 line)? How many Nc6 games were Accelerated Dragon lines (which is basically what 2...g6 will be)? How many 'Accelerated Dragons' were demoted to Dragons (another 2...d6 line)? Another line, the Sicilian 4 Knight's variation (though not particularly popular) can occur after either 2...e6 or 2...Nc6. So, although White no longer has the option of the Grand Prix Attack, (s)he can still play one of the lesser Sicilian lines - a version of the Alapin, Rossolimo, Moscow, Chekhover, or (s)he can wait with 3. Nc3 to see what the opponent has in mind. So, I think you may be better off researching more specific lines, if you are stuck on using statistics. ——— World's No. 1 Chess Player Widens Lead Over His Biggest Rivals — History will record 1990 as a great year for chess players: it was when three of the current top 25 players in the world were born. The youngest of the three is Magnus Carlsen of Norway, who is No. 1 in the world. Of the other two, Maxime Vachier-Lagrave of France is No. 18, and Sergey Karjakin, who was born in Ukraine but now plays for Russia, is No. 21. Under different circumstances, Karjakin and Vachier-Lagrave would be considered potential world chess champions. But just as the talented players in the 2003 N.B.A. draft have labored in LeBron James’s shadow, Karjakin and Vachier-Lagrave have been eclipsed by Carlsen. In Karjakin’s case, it is puzzling. He was the youngest ...
Posted by ionadowman mailcafe.net
1/08/2007 00:13:14 Play online chess | I dunno ...
Message: ... Stats can be interesting, but arichallan does raise questions that are pertinent to whatever meaning one might be able to draw from these. Much also depends on what the stats are being used for. I would be disinclined to base my choice from the 4 2nd moves for black suggested in the opening post on the statistical results. Like spijker, I've always been a 2...d6 man...
;-) ——— Vishy Anand helps Magnus Carlsen to claim Corus crown — When Vishy Anand drew his first nine games at Corus Wijk aan Zee last week, opinions were divided on whether the world chess champion had lost his edge or was simply taking a well-paid rest before his April title defence in Sofia against Veselin Topalov. Then Anand acted as Corus king-maker, beating Alexei Shirov and Vlad Kramnik, so that the pair finished half a point behind Magnus Carlsen. Norway's world No1 had previously won at Pearl Spring in China and the London Classic and finished second at the Tal Memorial, His fine run continued at Wijk, and the live ratings now make him the all-time No2 to Garry Kasparov. Carlsen had final-round luck in Holland, and the impression is that ...
Posted by magna68 mailcafe.net
1/08/2007 11:15:44 Play online chess | This is just too funny
Message: did you really run Fritz for 9 hours on second move and hoped for any reliable results from that? Why didn't you start the beast on move one? Maybe it would have given you the holy truth about which is better. 1. e4 or 1. d4 :-)
Guys, chess would be long dead if it was that simple. Whether you play 2. .. g6, 2. ..e6, 2. ..d6, or 2. ..Rc6 is a matter of personal choice and style of play you like. First try to understand the theory behind each of these moves and following variants, then choose one you like, .. and stick to it.
hehe... 9 hours, im still smiling. Poor old silicon beast, I can almost feel your pain! :-))
cheers
magna68
——— Fresh ideas from Adams — The Governor of Gibraltar Sir Adrian Johns visited the Gibtelecom Masters at the Caleta Hotel and chose the day the chess competition intensified as England’s Michael Adams regained a share of the lead with a ninth round win. Adams produced a new idea in the opening against the French Defence and although it did not look particularly dangerous he gradually outplayed the Argentinian GM Damian Lemos to reach 7/9. All the games were hardfought with the exception of the top board where the leader at start of play Jan Gustafsson was content to force an early draw against top seed Etienne Bacrot. With one to play Adams shares the lead with ...
Posted by ccmcacollister mailcafe.net
1/09/2007 05:42:29 Play online chess | The trouble with
Message: a computer ranking things early: It doesnt know what the next move is. If running outside its opening book it will look for activity and play towards the center most likely. Perhaps Fritz sat there dreading 3.Nc3 for hours and gives a -.03 or worse to every response he can make!? (just Eg numbers here now). But then WT plays 3.d4 and Fritz goes "OMG Thanks Be! He didnt see Nc3, wow, oh wowsa wow ... I'm not losing anymore! Now I'm +.07 ... its almost over! ...and I can go back in the closet where it is safe and wont fear being used for drop-kick practice anymore today!"
(Say Fritz ... who can cross the kitchen and out the back door faster?! heheh Yes, it IS YOU }B-)
| Posted by djole73 mailcafe.net
1/13/2007 03:56:24 Play online chess |
Message: Hi i_play_slowly,
however if you want to research database for opening, you need to research specific line and not only position after first two-three moves. Because after 1. e4 c5 2. Nf3 g6 there is a lot of possible transpositions, so your results are NOT from SICILIAN games only. For example after 1. e4 c5 2. Nf3 g6 3. c4 Bg7 4. d4 Qa5+ we are in Queen pawn game (A40) or after 1. e4 c5 2. Nf3 g6 3. d4 Bg7 3. d5 d6 4. c4 Nf6 5. Nc3 we are in Kings indian defence (E90). So if you want to explore sicilian defense you need to input few more "sicilian" moves. I try 1. e4 c5 2. Nf3 g6 3. d4 cd 4. Nd4 Nc6 (the position is knewn like starting position of accelerated dragon, but also with some transposition posibilities) and results are white won: 35%, black won 31%, draw 34%. Also the move 2...Nc6 is "worst", only because transposition problems. There are wery few sicilian main variatons where Knight does not go to c6. The true is if you play 1. e4 c5 2. Nf3 g6 3. d4 cd white can capture with queen 4. Qd4 and black rook is attacked, so black must play ...Nf6. This is probably not so dangerous for black but it is extra option for white, and black need to learn more theory.
| Posted by far1ey mailcafe.net
1/14/2007 01:54:31 Play online chess |
Message: lol. I agree with magna, you may as well put Fritz 8 to work for 9 hours on whether e4 or d4 is best.
You can get a decent game from all of those moves. You are much better off playing a move which suits your style as well as knowing the theory behind it rather than playing a move because it is 0.01 of a pawn better than another move.
| Posted by i_play_slowly mailcafe.net
1/16/2007 10:33:02 Play online chess | magna68 and far1ey
Message: Perhaps more people would participate in this forum if there was less chance of being ridiculed--just a thought. I do appreciate your points, however, about the validity of all orthodox variations and the importance of simply sticking with a variation that matches one's temperament.
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